Election Modernization in the Philippines at Crossroads

 

The Philippine Commission on Elections (Comelec) made a very risky and surprising move on November 29, when it banned its long-time technology provider Smartmatic from bidding on the 2025 contract for election technology in the Philippines. The move could spell the end to one of the most successful examples of election modernization in the Asia Pacific region.

Comelec’s new leadership has chosen to sever ties with Smartmatic, despite the company's longstanding role improving Filipino elections and the integrity of the outcomes, which have held up to every audit and legal challenge. Petitions by political activists calling for Smartmatic's disqualification have been dismissed by Comelec, which has cited a lack of evidence to justify such measures.

In the weeks preceding the rulings, Comelec Chairman Garcia firmly stated that the committee would only consider disqualification if substantial evidence was introduced in a legal setting. On September 22, Garcia affirmed, "The presumption of innocence prevails. We will meticulously observe the progression of this matter, particularly the nature and substance of the evidence presented in court.” Additionally, in a PhilStar interview, the Chairman underscored, "The Comelec cannot disqualify on the basis of speculation, rumors, or mere allegations." Despite the absence of such evidence and the lack of a judicial proceeding, Comelec nevertheless moved forward with the disqualification of Smartmatic.

Responding to the disqualification, Smartmatic pointed out that Comelec failed to follow the standard legal process for disqualification and never gave the company a chance to prove its innocence. “This ruling is made without any legal basis and appears to be an excuse for what was clearly a pre-determined decision to exclude Smartmatic from the bid, irrespective of merit. Our reputation and goodwill have been unjustly besmirched and the right to join the bidding withheld unjustly,” reads the company’s statement.

Since its first participation in Philippine elections in the Mindanao province in 2008, Smartmatic has continuously supplied election technology and services to Comelec. The company won open bids for subsequent national and local elections from 2010 through the most recent elections in 2022. During this period, the country saw marked improvements in both efficiency and accuracy, as well as citizen safety from post-election violence.

Barring further explanation from Comelec, the committee’s decision is curious and may, indeed, backfire on it. Comelec’s choice was, supposedly, driven by its desire to maintain the integrity of its processes and elections. Yet by sidestepping its own rules and due legal process, Comelec is opening itself to those who would question its integrity and thus, the integrity of the elections in its charge. At a time when the committee is being heavily scrutinized for yielding to political and economic pressures, choosing to circumvent due process seems to be an odd choice that may irreparably harm the cause of election integrity Comelec works so hard to protect.

The Philippines inches closer to internet voting

The Philippines’ Commission on Elections (Comelec) recently conducted test runs for internet voting as part of its mandate to enfranchise Filipino voters abroad.

In a statement, Comelec said that the test runs were part of a study on the use of internet-based technology for overseas voting. The poll body is expressly allowed by law to explore other modes or systems using automated election system.

The initiative saw thousands of overseas Filipino voters signing up to vote in simulated polls using three different platforms from competing voting companies. The tests yielded varying degrees of success in terms of participation with one provider hitting a record 64% voter turnout.

“This looks promising because traditionally we never go beyond 50 percent when it comes to voters who actually voted for overseas voting. Historically, it’s always been below 40 percent,” according to Sonia Bea Wee-Lozada, a Comelec official in charge of overseas voting.

“So, that’s how we are imagining it especially for overseas voting. Seafarers who may not be on land during the voting period, the internet voting system would be very much convenient and efficient for them,” she said.

Internet voting is expected to boost turnout as it enables voters to participate from anywhere there is a stable internet connection, a boon for overseas Filipinos who may not be able to take a day off to visit an embassy or consulate or find it expensive to travel to the nearest polling place.

The Comelec hopes that the test runs will be able to determine the operational and technical feasibility of conducting overseas voting using internet-based systems and gather data on technical specifications of the internet voting solutions currently being used in different countries.

The data gathered from these activities will inform COMELEC’s recommendatory report or policy proposal to Congress, which is expected to pass an enabling law for internet voting to be used in the midterm elections of 2025.

There are an estimated 2.8 million Filipinos working all over the world pumping back some $4 billion to their home country’s economy annually. Owing to this sector’s significant contribution to the country’s GDP, the Philippine government has accorded special status to overseas workers and has relentlessly been seeking ways to improve delivery of services to them, including making voting easier.

The success of online voting for overseas Filipinos could likewise prove to be the impetus for Comelec to consider rolling the system out to the rest of the country. Advocates are convinced that internet voting could make elections in this archipelagic country of more than 7,000 islands easier, safer, and cheaper.

Philippine poll watchdog greenlights security of e-voting system ahead of elections

 

An influential election watchdog group in the Philippines has assured voters of the security of the country’s automated elections system, ahead of the May 2022 elections.

“We have come a long way in terms of technological advancements in the way we vote. Our automated system is a big improvement over the old manual system,” said noted IT-professional Henry Aguda, a trustee of the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV), in an online voter education seminar.

PPCRV is a church-based citizen’s group which has been keeping watch over Philippine elections for three decades. It has over 500,000 volunteers all over the country.

PPCRV is a church-based citizen’s group which has been keeping watch over Philippine elections for three decades. It has over 500,000 volunteers all over the country. The Philippines started automating their elections in 2010 and since them the PPCRV has validated all election results.

Responding to questions during the webinar, Aguda said that the vote counting machine (VCM) lessens the possibility of electoral fraud. “We have experts who have seen how the source code is secure and how encryptions have been done,” he said.

Aguda further cited that VCMs run software that has been “meticulously developed for the purpose of counting votes.” He also cited the machine’s capability to detect duplicate or fake ballots, flag ballots intended for other machines, as well as other components of security such as the physical i-button keys held by poll workers.

“Our machines are very secure,” Aguda said, adding that “I cannot imagine somebody successfully rigging an election through the machines.”

Dr. William Yu, who is also an IT-professional and a trustee of the poll watchdog group reminded voters that the automated election system is a system. “It is important to recognize that this is a system. The VCM is secure but there are other things — the process, the i-buttons keys that are also part of the overall security,” he said.

“If you want to break the system you have to break all of those. And it’s not just the machine, you will also have to compromise all the people on the site, the volunteers,” he said.

Yu also dismissed the idea of a rouge vote counting machine being used to cheat.

“In case there is a shadow VCM or ghost VCM that is in the system, we should be able to track it down with our parallel count process. Not only are there controls within the system itself, but there are also controls that we as poll watchers are able to do,” Yu said.

As a way to further increase transparency of the system, Yu is advocating to increase the number of precincts that are audited in every Philippine election. The post-election audit performed is known as the random manual audit (RMA). “It always helps to have more checks and balances,” he said.

As a way to further increase transparency of the system, Yu is advocating to increase the number of precincts to be subjected to the random manual audit (RMA). “It always helps to have more checks and balances,” he said.

The RMA shows an increasing match between the electronic count and the manual count since 2010 when the Philippines started automating its elections. In 2010 it was 99.580%, 2013 -99.9474%, 2016 - 99.9027%, and 2019 - 99.9953%.

2016 Philippine elections free from fraud - forensics experts

Elections forensics experts Kirill Kalinin, a national fellow at the Hoover Institution, and Professor Allen Hicken of the University of Michigan have concluded in a study that the contested 2016 Philippine general elections was free from fraud.

A paper titled “Using Election Forensics to Detect Election Fraud in the Philippine Elections, 2016,” revealed its key findings that the Philippine 2016 elections were relatively clean.

This study used the tools of election forensics to investigate charges of electoral fraud in the Philippine national elections of 2026.

“We focused on digit tests, finite mixture model and its equivalents. We pay particular attention to the measurement of stolen votes and geographic allocation of election fraud across national elections. We then focus on Marcos v. Robredo court case, which helps us to validate some of our research findings for the vice-presidential election,” the paper said.

It will be recalled that defeated vice-presidential candidate Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. had filed an electoral protest against the winner Vice President Ma. Leonor Robredo for alleged fraud. Although the Presidential Electoral Tribunal, composed of Supreme Court justices and tasked to decide on electoral disputes involving the two top elective positions, has yet to issue a formal ruling, it commented last year that its recount showed Robredo increasing her lead.

The study further said that even though there is some limited evidence suggesting the presence of election fraud, “their effect on the electoral outcome for the national races is insignificant.”

Election forensics is an emergent discipline which employs a diverse set of statistical tools such as Benford’s Law and other techniques similar to those employed to detect financial fraud, to analyze electoral data for pattern deviations which could suggest fraud.

According to the Institute of International Education (IIE), which is at the forefront of the new field, “numbers that humans have manipulated present patterns that are unlikely to occur if produced by a natural process—such as free and fair elections or normal commercial transactions.”

“These deviations suggest either that the numbers were intentionally altered or that other factors—such as a range of normal strategic voting practices—influenced the electoral results. The greater the number of statistical tests that identify patterns that deviate from what is expected to naturally occur, the more likely that the deviation results from fraud rather than legal strategic voting.”

Anti-technology groups endangering future of elections in the Philippines

In May 2022, voters in Philippines will go to the polls to elect their new president and other national and local officials.  For this general election, the country is set to use for a fifth time its automated election system, which it has adopted with great success since 2010. 

Popular opinion is that automation has resulted in a pronounced improvement in the credibility of elections, which had historically been marred by controversies due to the slow manual count and the susceptibility of the manual system to manipulation. In a 2019 survey, leading pollster Pulse Asia found out that 84% of Filipinos trusted election results and an overwhelming 91% wanted automated voting in future elections.

But despite the success of poll automation, some small yet loud anti-technology groups have somehow influenced lawmakers to file bills seeking to junk the system in favor of a so-called hybrid method, which purportedly blends manual and automated modes of voting. 

Election experts have been quick to warn that hybrid is just manual elections couched in technology speak, and represents  a significant downgrade that could set off a dangerous backslide toward the dark ages of  the flawed manual elections.
Election watchdog Democracy Watch said in statement that “adopting a hybrid vote counting system in 2022 is a step back for the Philippines in its journey towards transparent and credible elections.”
 
During an end-to-end demonstration at a school in Cavite, a province just south of the capital Manila, the system proved unreliable and inefficient. Witnesses were one in observing that moving back to manual counting, as implied under the hybrid system, would be a significant setback.
 
After the test, lawmaker Rep. Edgar Erice stated “I don’t think [hybrid system] feasible. The test run was not successful. I maintain that the law requires automation both in the precinct voting and transmission.”

Fredenil Castro, Capiz Representative and then House electoral reforms committee chair, stated that the hybrid system test was "miserably [unsuccessful] to even closely match the advantages of a fully-automated election."

As the elections inch closer, all eyes are on the Philippine legislature as it debates the hybrid bill. Will it pass a law supplanting automated polls in favor of the untried hybrid system thereby risking a regression to the benighted days of manual? Or will it uphold the successes of the past four elections and retain the automated election system to ensure that the 2022 polls are marked with transparency and credibility?

The future of Philippine democracy may very well be hinged on this.

After a decade of automated polls, the Philippines stand as a positive reference

Elections in the Philippine have been among the most hotly contested in the world, with election protests being a fixture in the arsenal of many candidates unwilling to accept defeat. But since 2010, when the country adopted an automated elections system, it has seen a dramatic improvement in how elections are run. Key metrics such as accuracy in the vote count, transparency measures put in place and trust in results have steadily improved while the number of electoral protests filed has noticeably been in steep decline.

A recent assessment by the Manila-based think tank Stratbase ADR Institute for Strategic and International Studies, found the 2019  Philippine midterm elections to be “well-run” for achieving positive marks on key metrics such as accuracy, credibility, transparency, voter satisfaction, and number of electoral protests filed.

According to the paper authored by political scientists Ador R. Torneo and Topin S. Ruiz, the accuracy of the polls was verified by the results of the random manual audit (RMA) which reached a “record-high” of 99.99% in 2019, which is up from 99.90 % in 2016, 99.7% in 2013, and 99.6% in 2010.

The uptrend in the RMA results seems to be inversely correlated with the downtrend in the number of protest cases being filed. According to the House of Representatives Electoral Tribunal (HRET), the body tasked to decide on protests filed for congressional posts, there were 49 cases filed in 2010, 37 in 2013, 28 in 2016, and 21 in 2019. None of these cases have resulted in reversals.

Other election protests filed before the country’s Commission on Elections (Comelec) is also decreasing.  Data from the poll body shows that 49 cases were filed in 2010, 32 cases in 2013, and 22 in 2010.

Credibility was measured in the study in terms of public perception, saying that “the people’s opinions and trust of the system and the election results are an indicator of credibility.”

“In Pulse Asia’s survey, 89% of Filipinos prefer the automated system, a comparable yet increasing trend since the first automated elections in 2010,” the paper said.

Transparency was also a hallmark of the 2019 polls,  as the study found the electorate to have had access to processes and information.

“For the 2019 mid-term elections, COMELEC (Commission on Elections) provided at least four means for the public to gain a good understanding of the how the system works. These included mock elections, source code review, public ballot printing system, and the results website.”

Voter confidence and satisfaction for the 2019 mid-terms elections was also notable, the paper said, with 83% of Filipinos were satisfied with the conduct of the elections.

“This is relatively consistent with all other elections under the AES. People’s opinions surveys resulted in 84% believing that the election results in 2019 were credible. This is a significant jump from 74% in 2016,” the paper said.

The full paper can be downloaded here.