Friday, July 18, 2025

Holy Grail of Elections: Does Ranked Choice Voting Produce True Majority Winners?

Source: fairvote.org

In the ongoing search for electoral systems that meet the demands of modern democracies, ranked choice voting (RCV) is gaining momentum. Advocates present it as a smarter alternative to plurality voting—one that strengthens majority rule, reduces negative campaigning, and offers voters more meaningful choices. By ranking candidates rather than selecting just one, voters can express preferences more fully and support their ideal candidate without fear of "wasting" their vote.

Proponents also argue that RCV encourages a more diverse field of candidates, giving independents and third-party contenders a better chance to compete. Critics, however, caution that RCV may simply exchange old problems for new ones. They point to the complexity of ballots, the need for extensive voter education, and the risk of confusion or ballot errors, particularly in lower-information elections.

How RCV Works

RCV allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, the one with the fewest is eliminated. Ballots for that candidate are then redistributed based on the next-ranked choices. This continues until a candidate earns a majority of remaining active votes.

Why People Like It

Supporters say RCV more accurately reflects the will of the electorate. Under plurality systems, candidates can win with as little as 30–35% of the vote in crowded fields. RCV requires broader support, helping ensure that winners reflect a wider voter base.

Is It a "True Majority"?

A central debate around RCV is what constitutes a "majority." Because ballots that don’t list enough preferences can become “exhausted” and drop out before the final round, the winning candidate may achieve a majority of continuing ballots—but not a majority of all ballots cast. Whether this counts as a “true majority” depends on how one defines the electorate: by all participants or only those whose ballots remain active. Supporters emphasize that better ballot design and voter education can reduce exhaustion.

Complexity and Voter Understanding

RCV is more complex than single-choice voting and requires public education to ensure voters fill out their ballots correctly. Without proper outreach, voters may misunderstand the ranking process or leave ballots partially blank, leading to ballot exhaustion. However, in cities like San Francisco, Santa Fe, and Minneapolis, post-implementation studies have found high levels of voter understanding and confidence. A report by New America found that most voters in the US, even first-timers, say they understand how RCV works (New America report).

Impact on Campaigns

RCV may also influence how candidates campaign. Since being a second or third choice can help secure victory, candidates may be less likely to attack opponents and more likely to appeal to a broader coalition. While the actual impact varies across elections, many observers suggest that RCV can help foster more civil discourse.

Preventing Vote Splitting

RCV can help reduce vote-splitting, a common problem in plurality elections where similar candidates divide support and allow a less popular option to win. Under RCV, voters can support a preferred candidate without worrying about inadvertently helping their least preferred one. FairVote: RCV solves the "spoiler" problem.

Administrative Trade-Offs

Despite its benefits, RCV does bring administrative challenges. It can be more expensive to implement and slower to tabulate, especially in large races with many candidates. Multiple rounds of counting and the need for more sophisticated systems can raise concerns about transparency and trust. MIT Election Data + Science Lab report. Is It the Holy Grail?

RCV offers meaningful improvements: it reduces vote-splitting, broadens voter expression, and may promote more civil campaigning. But it’s not a universal fix. It brings trade-offs in cost, complexity, and the definition of majority. As global examples from New York to Australia to India show, RCV can succeed with transparency, robust education, and thoughtful implementation.

No system is perfect. But for jurisdictions aiming to reflect the will of more voters in crowded fields, RCV remains a compelling option—worthy of continued study, testing, and refinement.